Major Mike's Musings

“Those who agree with us may not be right, but we admire their astuteness.”¹

1. Cullen Hightower [↩]

“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — John Kenneth Galbraith

Yesterday, Black Friday, consumers spent 3%¹ more than last year. All we heard on the news was how horrible for retailers the day would be. That folks were only going to browse. I think Mr. Galbraith is correct. The crowds even trampled a Wal-Mart employee to death in their rush to buy stuff, for crying out loud.

1. UPDATE: latest figures estimate that the increase may be more like 7% [↩]

OK, so Congress passed the bailout (and about $150 billion of pork) and the stock market continues to tank. Could it be that fear, not tight credit, is fueling the market? Did it help that both presidential candidates said that this is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression? Do the cries of the media help the situation?

The Theory of Rational Expectation in economics says that the economy will follow the expectations of the population. Are we expecting the economy to tank?

The Villages Daily Sun quoted the New York Post regarding global warming and beer prices:

High beer prices are on tap, and global warming could be to blame.

The environmental crisis has hit suds-lovers where it hurts most–at the bar and in the wallet–as prices of grains and hops soar, activists say.

(more…)

“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — John Kenneth Galbraith