Economic Forecasting

“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — John Kenneth Galbraith

Yesterday, Black Friday, consumers spent 3% 1UPDATE: latest figures estimate that the increase may be more like 7% more than last year. All we heard on the news was how horrible for retailers the day would be. That folks were only going to browse. I think Mr. Galbraith is correct. The crowds even trampled a Wal-Mart employee to death in their rush to buy stuff, for crying out loud.

Footnotes

Footnotes
1 UPDATE: latest figures estimate that the increase may be more like 7%

Experts

“An expert must be bold if he hopes to alchemize his homespun theory into conventional wisdom. His best chance of doing so is to engage the public’s emotions, for emotion is the enemy of rational argument.”, [Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, Freakonomics]

So how do you suppose this quote applies to the election?

Theory of Rational Expectation

OK, so Congress passed the bailout (and about $150 billion of pork) and the stock market continues to tank. Could it be that fear, not tight credit, is fueling the market? Did it help that both presidential candidates said that this is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression? Do the cries of the media help the situation?

The Theory of Rational Expectation in economics says that the economy will follow the expectations of the population. Are we expecting the economy to tank?

Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending – New York Times

Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending – New York Times.

You may want to hop over and read the linked article by Steven A. Holmes published September 30, 1999. In it Steven Holmes reports that Fannie Mae’s previous year portfolio contained 44% of its loans from low to moderate-income borrowers (subprime loans).

Fannie Mae, the nation’s biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits…. In July, the Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed that by the year 2001, 50 percent of Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s portfolio be made up of loans to low and moderate-income borrowers.

In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980’s.

”From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,” said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ”If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.”

I guess we did know about this financial meltdown years ago. Hmmm.